Is Patrick's loss a danger?
With a new AFL season upon us, many are curious as to how Adelaide are going to go without Patrick Dangerfield. The answer to that question is unknown, of course. However, if it follows the trend of previous years, they may not be impacted at all.
Since the introduction of GWS, Gold Coast and free agency, the AFL has seen the likes of Gary Ablett, Lance Franklin, Brendan Goddard, Dayne Beams and Ryan Griffen all jump ship to join new clubs. Initially, when these players walked away from their old clubs, many fans would have been left believing that their team would fall into a big, dark hole. But did they? Let's take a look at the evidence.
The loss of the king, Gary Ablett (Geelong to Gold Coast)
At the end of the 2010 AFL season, with the introduction of the Gold Coast Suns, Gary Ablett was the first to sign at a new club. “Many supporters were left disappointed and shocked", ex-teammate Tom Harley later said. Geelong had finished second, losing the Preliminary Final in Ablett’s last year but many supporters were still “worried and nervous” as to how the team would go without him. In 2011, although Geelong did not finish at the head of the ladder, they pipped Collingwood on Grand Final day, an improvement on the previous year which potentially showed that they were "better off without Gary".
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
GEELONG | 17 Wins | 19 Wins | ( + 2 ) |
GOLD COAST | N / A | 3 Wins | ( 0 ) |
Difference: +2 without Ablett
Brendan Goddard opts out of St Kilda (St Kilda to Essendon)
When Brendan Goddard left St Kilda at the end of the 2012 season, The Age reported that “many expect the Saints to fall down the ladder,” which is indeed what followed. Due to the Saints' ageing list, they were probably already on a decline and thus making it problematic to use this statistic as a point of comparison from a St Kilda perspective.
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
ST KILDA | 12 Wins | 5 Wins | ( - 7 ) |
ESSENDON | 11 Wins | 14 Wins | ( + 3 ) |
Difference: - 10 without Goddard
Buddy Franklin goes north (Hawthorn to Sydney)
182 games, 580 goals, two premierships, two Coleman medals, a club Best and Fairest, and six-time leading goal kicker at the club - these were the statistics held by Hawthorn’s key forward Lance Franklin at the end of the 2013 season. When Lance Franklin left the Hawks, it left “everyone one in tears,” not just because they had lost a hero, but because many believed that this would be the start of Hawthorn’s downfall. Sydney’s list appeared to be unbeatable. In reality, journalist Jon Ralph was correct that Hawthorn was “BETTER without Buddy.” Although they won fewer games for the 2014 season, they still managed to claim another flag, beating Sydney (Buddy’s new club) convincingly in the 2014 Grand Final.
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
HAWTHORN | 19 Wins (Premiers) | 17 Wins (Premiers) | ( - 2 ) / ( 0 ) |
SYDNEY | 15 Wins | 17 Wins | ( + 2 ) |
Difference: - 4. However the Hawks won a second successive premiership, therefore: -2 without Franklin
Dayne Beams walks away from the Pies (Collingwood to Brisbane)
Dayne Beams’ departure from Collingwood left fans worrying about midfield depth. With the Pies already on the decline, it was thought this may have led to Collingwood falling further down the table. However, without Beams, the Pies won only one game fewer than the previous 2014 season, and thus nearly broke even.
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
COLLINGWOOD | 11 Wins | 10 Wins | ( - 1 ) |
BRISBANE | 7 Wins | 4 Wins | ( - 3 ) |
Difference: +2 without Beams
Skipper Ryan Griffen becomes a Giant (Western Bulldogs to GWS)
The year after being announced as captain of the Bulldogs, Griffen left for GWS. Captainless, and coming off a seven-win season, fans couldn't see any silver lining in the clouds hanging over Whitten Oval. Against all odds, though, the loss of Griffen led to an incredible club turn-around, with new coach Luke Beverage's boys winning 14 games and playing finals footy in 2015, perhaps suggesting that the Dogs too were better off after the departure of a star.
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
BULLDOGS | 7 Wins | 14 Wins | ( + 7 ) |
GWS | 6 Wins | 11 Wins | ( + 5 ) |
Difference: +2 without Griffen
Patrick Dangerfield joins the Cattery (Adelaide to Geelong)
Looking at the statistics above, ignoring the outlier Goddard, the range is -2 ≤ 0 ≥ +2. What this tells us is that the difference between Adelaide and Geelong will likely not be substantial and that Adelaide fans, you should not stress about losing a star player in Dangerfield!
AMOUNT WINS (BEFORE) | AMOUNT WINS (AFTER) | ( + / - ) | |
ADELAIDE | 13 Wins | ??? | ( + / - ? ) |
GEELONG | 11 Wins | ??? | ( + / - ? ) |
Prediction: -2 ≤ 0 ≥ +2 BASED ON 2015 LADDER Adelaide – 6th (15 wins) Geelong – 5th (15 wins)
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