Micro Noises 186: A Grand Brownlow
A Brownlomen
Richmond fans everywhere are probably thinking that Dusty Martin's Brownlow Medal win on Monday night was the perfect way to kick off what could be a perfect premiership week. And while we certainly don't want to prick their balloon, we feel it's our duty to point out that Martin's win could actually spell bad news for the Tigers this Saturday.
The problem stems from Dusty's full name - Dustin Martin. Both his first name and surname have exactly six letters and the only other Brownlow Medal winner of the AFL era to have a '6,6' name is St Kilda's Robert Harvey. The problem for Richmond is that Harvey won his medals in 1997 and 1998 - and both of those were premiership seasons for Adelaide.
So while Martin's Brownlow Medal win might seem to have been a good sign for the Tiger Army, it may well result in Adelaide fans having something to Crow about come Saturday night.
Premiership prognostications
* But the news is not all bad for Richmond. The Tigers defeated GWS in last Saturday's preliminary final and history reveals that every single¹ team to have beaten the Giants in a preliminary final has gone on to win a flag the next week.
* On the other hand, Adelaide's never lost a Grand Final.²
* Then again, Richmond won 15.13 to 9.13 on Saturday, and the only previous team in history to win a match with that exact scoreline was St Kilda in 1966. The Saints, of course, went on to break a long drought and win that year's premiership.
* But on the other, other hand, compare these two matches:
Round 22, 2017: Adelaide suffers a loss by under a goal in round 22 despite having had more scoring shots (kicking 14 behinds) than their opposition, with a player in his 34th AFL game (Mitch McGovern) having 14 possessions
Round 22, 1997: Adelaide suffers a loss by under a goal in round 22 despite having had more scoring shots (kicking 14 behinds) than their opposition, with a player in his 34th AFL game (Shane Ellen) having 14 possessions.
1997 was, of course a Crows premiership season.
* On the other, other, other hand, the downside for them is that in 2017, Mitch McGovern is injured and won't be on hand to kick five goals in the Grand Final like Shane Ellen was 20 years ago. Perhaps his absence will sway the premiership odds slightly Richmond's way.
Ex Crow-Tigers have their say about the Grand Final
As we've seen above, the omens for a Crows and Tigers premiership seem the be split, so we thought it might be best to ask those who have played for both clubs for their Grand Final predictions. So we tracked down seven of them, and here is what they told us:
Kane Johnson: A dual premiership player with Adelaide before later becoming a Richmond captain, Johnson predicted a high-scoring but close tussle, with the Tigers prevailing 116-104.
Richard Tambling: Having spent six seasons at Richmond in which his promise was largely unfulfilled, Tambling later played a handful of games with the Crows without making an impact. Tambling surprised us with his Grand Final forecast, predicting that Adelaide would suffer stage-fright and that the Tigers would win in a canter, 108 to 16.
Chris Knights: Meanwhile, Chris Knights, who shared two seasons at the Crows with Tambling before moving to Richmond, is predicting almost the exact opposite result to his ex-teammate. He believes Adelaide will smash the Tigers, with an even more outlandish predicted final scoreline of 96 to 6.
Jason Torney: It might surprise some to learn that Jason Torney played almost 200 AFL matches with Richmond and Adelaide between 1995 and 2007, but he did indeed, serving both clubs well. Like Johnson and Tambling, Torney is predicting a Tiger flag, with the final margin to fall between Johnson's 12 and Tambling's 92. Torney's projected final score is 118 to 77.
Ivan Maric: Big Ivan Maric has drawn the curtain on a solid AFL career after six seasons each with the Crows and Tigers. His tip is for a thrilling Grand Final, with his second club Richmond to prevail 80 to 77.
Clay Sampson: Another ex-Tiger and Crow, Sampson is also on the Tiger train, but he believes that the final score will depend largely on the weather. If it's wet, Sampson says the Grand Final will be one of the lowest-scoring in history, with Richmond to win 27-24, but if the weather is dry, it will be the highest-scoring Grand Final in history, with the Tigers to win 27 goals to 24!
Stuart Wigney: An AFL journeyman who played for four clubs, Wigney is predicting that Richmond will win. He wouldn't give us an exact score, but believes that the Tigers will kick 14 goals to Adelaide's 10. We're not sure if we should give his tip much credence, though, because prior to last year's Grand Final, he told us the Bulldogs would kick 47 goals to Sydney's one! Mind you the Dogs did win so he did correctly pick the winner.*
- * Now before any of our readers call our bluff, we'd just like to point out that none of the above predictions are real - at least as far as we know. The predicted scores are purely based on the number of games played at each club (including those played at Footscray and Sydney in the case of Wigney) by the above former Crows and Tigers.
Postcode of the week
Last Friday's preliminary final between Adelaide and Geelong saw the Crows running rings around the Cats to record a crushing win. Geelong was all at sea for much of the match, often appearing to be running around in circles without getting anywhere. So it's probably fitting that their opponents kicked 6, 5, 3 and 7 goals against them across each of the match's four quarters. 6537, you see, is the postcode of Useless Loop.
Ridiculous footy anagrams of the week
Richmond fans have been bellowing out the Tigers' club song all week. And why not - Richmond's first Grand Final appearance in 35 years has reformed their long-held negative view of the footy world and washed away all their woes. Appropriately then, FANS: "OH WE'RE FROM TIGERLAND" is an anagram of THE GRAND FINAL REFORMS WOE.
You've 'heard' from ex-Richmond and Adelaide players but now you'd like to know who we are predicting to win the Grand Final? Okay, well, we've given the matter some thought and would like to reply in two lines, one being an anagram of the other:
ADELAIDE'S CROWS? HMM, NO.
AWESOME RICHMOND LADS!
Micro Noises is Andrew Gigacz's regular, quirky look at all things footy. The name Micro Noises is an anagram of Enrico Misso, who played one game for St Kilda in 1985. He remains the only Enrico and the only Misso to have played footy at the highest level.
Footnotes
1. The operative word here is, of course, 'single'. Prior to this year, the Giants had only played one preliminary final! They were defeated last year by the ultimate premiers, the Western Bulldogs.
2. This omen holds slightly more weight than the previous one. The Crows have played and won two Grand Finals.
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