Micro Noises 198: An exhaustive process
What might have been
With the AFL home-and-away season done and dusted, it's time for our annual look at the 'What might have been' ladder. The 2019 season has produced 33 matches decided by a goal or less. The 'swings and roundabouts' principle suggests that over time, results of such close encounters generally even out, but was that true of this season?
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The answer is yes, for most sides. But for a few teams, an extra goal in these matches would have made a world of difference. We went through the process of adding a goal to the scores of the 33 teams that lost by six points or fewer, and we came up with the ladder at right. For Port Adelaide and GWS, those goals would have resulted in a significant reversal of fortune. Instead of preparing to host the Bulldogs in week one of the finals, the Giants would now be recovering from Mad Monday. Ken Hinkley's men, on the other hand, would be preparing to travel to the MCG for a repeat of their 2013 Elimination Final encounter with Collingwood.
West Coast would still be playing their first final at Perth Stadium, but they would be doing so with a double chance intact, and their guests would be Richmond. Instead of the Tigers travelling to the Gabba, Brisbane would be coming to Victoria to take on Geelong — who would have finished two games clear on top — at the MCG (or Kardinia Park?)
The Western Bulldogs would still have finished in their favourite ladder position, seventh, but instead of travelling up to the Sydney Showground to take on GWS, they would need only to take a short trip to the MCG to play Essendon.
It's said that ruing what might have been is an exercise in futility. That may be true, but we've still had fun pondering the difference one extra goal would have made in this season's 33 AFL thrillers.
Dogs fall short but score big
In last week's Micro Noises we flagged a potential record-equalling performance from the Western Bulldogs. A 10-goal win over Adelaide at Ballarat would have given the Dogs only their second hat-trick of wins by 60 or more points in V/AFL history. And when Aaron Naughton goaled midway through the final term, the Bulldogs were right on target. At that stage they led by 59 points, and need just one further goal to take the margin beyond 60. Unfortunately, with the heat out of the game, Adelaide kicked five of the game's last six majors and the dream of the hat-trick evaporated.
However, the Bulldogs did manage to record a consolation hat-trick. They recorded a third consecutive score of more than 120 points for just the second time under coach Luke Beveridge. Before that, the Dogs had not managed three or more scores of 120+ since racking up six in a row to kick off their 2008 season.
The Marginal Medal
The thrills and spills of the exciting competition that is The Marginal Medal continued this week. 5 points and 27 points came into the final round as equal leaders, but North Melbourne's defeat of Melbourne brought up the 10th instance of a 5-point game in 2019. Not to be outdone, 27 points fought back a day later when Richmond won by that margin against Brisbane.
5 and 27 now hold a lead of two over 1 point and 19 points, each of which has been a margin eight times.
Score Wars
The North Melbourne v Melbourne match also had an impact on this epic battle. 71 and 69 were joined in the lead by North's score of 88, each now having been recorded 11 times this season, while 72, 75 and 85 are just behind with 10 appearances each.
At the other end of the scale, Sydney's total of 109 left 47 as the only score between 40 and 110 not recorded this year.
Omen of the week
Could the Bombers win the flag from eighth position? Surely not. Then again, no one thought the Bulldogs could win it from seventh in 2016, and we all know they did. To lend weight to the possibility of Essendon following a similar path to the Dogs' one of 2016, we need only look at Essendon's possible September path. The Dons will start their finals campaign with a Thursday night match in Perth against West Coast, just as the Bulldogs did. A win could see them take on last year's Grand Finalist, Collingwood in week 2. The Bulldogs faced a 2015 Grand Finalist (Hawthorn) in week 2 of 2016's finals.
If the Bombers' streak continued they could potentially be heading north to take on an interstate team (Brisbane at the Gabba), just like the Dogs (GWS at Giants Stadium), before a Grand Final showdown against a Sydney based team (GWS) who had beaten Geelong in the Preliminary Final. The Bulldogs dis the same (taking on Sydney after the Swans had beaten the Cats).
It's all starting to make sense — isn't it? Well, if you're not convinced, consider this. The final score in the Sydney-St Kilda match last weekend was 109 to 64. Two previous V/AFL matches have finished with a 109-64 scoreline. One was in 1985, the other in 2000. Both of those years were premiership ones for Essendon.
Still not convinced? Well, there's more! The Swans-Saints match was played last Saturday, August 24. The 1985 match that ended 109 to 64 was played on... August 24.
Start saving for your Grand Final tickets, Bomber fans!
Years of the week
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Richmond and Collingwood have a long history of animosity between them, one which dates back almost to the time of the Tigers entry into the VFL way back in 1908. It was the Magpies that Richmond defeated to win their first ever premiership. And the captain-coach of that premiership win was Dan Minogue, who played 85 games for the Pies but defected to Richmond upon his return from war service in 1920, much to Collingwood's chagrin.
Six decades later the two sides almost sent each other broke as they outlaid huge amounts of cash poaching players from each other.
Given their rocky relationship, it was a pleasant surprise to see the two clubs acknowledging each other's founding year this week, with their final home-and-away 'points for' totals. The Tigers' total was 1892, the year of Collingwood's formation, while the Magpies' tally was 1885, which is the year Richmond was formed.
No doubt normal hostilities will be resumed if and when the clubs cross paths in this year's finals series.
Ridiculous footy anagram of the week
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On this week's episode of Channel 7's light-hearted footy panel show, The Front Bar, new North Melbourne's new coach Rhyce Shaw appeared as a special guest. In the course of his chat with the panel, he was gently chided about the Kangaroos supposedly carriying out an exhaustive search for the right coach, even though they appointed "the bloke from two offices down the corridor".
Shaw took the gibe in his stride, but North's board were seriously questioned by the media on this issue in the days after he was appointed three weeks ago. The club insisted their process had indeed been exhaustive, but we can't help but wonder if the decision makers simply rearranged the letters of RHYCE SHAW to come up with the philosophy behind the process: WHY SEARCH?
Micro Noises is Andrew Gigacz's regular, quirky look at all things footy. The name Micro Noises is an anagram of Enrico Misso, who played one game for St Kilda in 1985. He remains the only Enrico and the only Misso to have played footy at the highest level.
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