Micro Noises 207: Will it end in tears?
It starts with a bang...
Having broken a 57-year premiership drought, Melbourne is 5-0 after five rounds in 2022 and flying. The Demons are short-priced favourites to go back to back, and deservedly so. Deserved favouritism it may be, but history suggests that the Dees may have in fact shot themselves in the foot by starting off this season so well.
In the last 65 years, 10 teams — including Melbourne this year — have followed up a premiership with a 5-0 start the next season. Of the previous nine not one has gone on to claim consecutive flags. Six of the nine have made it all the way back to the Grand Final, only to fall short on the big day. Of the other three, two made it to the semi-final stage, and one missed out on finals altogether.
...and ends in tears
Melbourne is in fact the first team in more than a decade to win its first five games the year after winning a premiership. The last team to do so was Collingwood in 2011. The Pies won their first six matches before having a bye and falling to Geelong in Round 8. They would lose only two further matches for the season, also to Geelong, and one of those was the Grand Final.
Before that Geelong were 8-0 in 2008 having broken a premiership drought in 2007. Coincidentally, their run of wins was broken by Collingwood. The Cats, too, would ultimately fall short in the Grand Final, losing in an upset to Hawthorn. West Coast were 6-0 in 2007 having won the flag in 2006. Their run was broken by Geelong and their premiership defence by Collingwood in the semi-finals.
Turning back the clock, before those teams came Hawthorn in 1978-89, Carlton (1979-80), North Melbourne (1977-78), Carlton (1972-73), Melbourne (1964-65) and Melbourne again (1957-58). All of those teams flew out of the blocks the year after saluting, but none was able to go back-to-back.
One thing in the Demons' favour is that they were in fact the last team to start 5-0 or better and defend their title. They did so in 1955-56. Prior to that the phenomenon was more common, as can be seen in the full table below. On the other hand, Melbourne is the 16th team in V/AFL history to break a premiership drought of 20 years or more, and none of the previous 15 managed to go back-to-back.
YEARS | REIGNING PREMIER | STARTING STREAK | SEASON END |
2010-11 | Collingwood | Won first six games | Lost Grand Final |
2007-08 | Geelong | Won first eight | Lost Grand Final |
2006-07 | West Coast | Won first six | Lost semi-final |
1983-84 | Hawthorn | Won first five | Lost Grand Final |
1979-80 | Carlton | Won first five | Lost semi-final |
1977-78 | North Melbourne | Won first eight | Lost Grand Final |
1972-73 | Carlton | Won first five | Lost Grand Final |
1964-65 | Melbourne | Won first eight | Missed finals |
1957-58 | Melbourne | Won first five | Lost Grand Final |
1955-56 | Melbourne | Won first 13 | Won premiership |
1953-54 | Collingwood | Won first five | Missed finals |
1952-53 | Geelong | Won first 13 | Lost Grand Final |
1951-52 | Geelong | Won first six | Won premiership |
1949-50 | Essendon | Won first five | Won premiership |
1935-36 | Collingwood | Won first nine | Won premiership |
1931-32 | Geelong | Won first five | Missed finals |
1928-29 | Collingwood | Won first 18 | Won premiership |
1924-25 | Essendon | Won first five | Lost semi-final |
1907-08 | Carlton | Won first 11 | Won premiership |
1904-05 | Fitzroy | Won first seven | Won premiership |
1897-98 | Essendon | Won first five | Lost Grand Final |
ZIP Code of the week
West Coast looked like it had turned the corner with its win against Collingwood in Round 4 but the Eagles were brought back Earth with a thud against the Sydney Swans last week. Their 58-121 loss indicated just how FAR they have to GO to be competitive, which is reinforced further still by the fact that 58121 is the ZIP Code of FARGO.
Postcode of the week
For reigning premiers Melbourne, last Saturday at the MCG was just another day in footy Paradise. The Dees smashed GWS by 67 points having been ahead 6.2-3.6 at half time. 6236 is, of course, the postcode of Paradise in Western Australia.
Ridiculous footy anagram of the week
Poor old Leon Cameron is a coach under the pump at the moment. His Giants are 1-4 after five rounds and media vultures are circling, suggesting his time could soon be up. Time will tell if they are right. Whether GWS should have won a premiership under his stewardship is a matter for debate, but one thing's for sure — the fact that the Giants were favourites to grab Lance 'Buddy' Franklin ahead of the 2014 season but never managed to do so certainly dented their flag chances. Perhaps it was always meant to be, though, while LEON CAMERON was at the helm. After all, he's an anagram of NO MORE LANCE.
Micro Noises is Andrew Gigacz's occasional, quirky look at all things footy. The name Micro Noises is an anagram of Enrico Misso, who played one game for St Kilda in 1985. He remains the only Enrico and the only Misso to have played footy at the highest level.
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