Dogs and Demons — the facts
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As we count down the days to the 2021 AFL Grand Final, pundits and fans of the great Australian game will no doubt be analysing the respective game styles and team selections of the two combatants, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
In a sense this was a Grand Final match-up that seemed inevitable for much of the year, only to become seemingly impossible just three weeks ago. Luke Beveridge's Bulldogs took all before them for large swathes of the season, but fell of a metaphorical cliff just before the finals, losing their final three home-and-away games. Now, the only team to win a premiership from outside the top four under the current finals format is just one win away from doing it again.
Beveridge is a coach well outside the AFL mould. One senses that he might have even preferred the Dogs to reach the Grand Final in this manner, such is his quirkiness. And quirkiness will be the focus of this article, a collection of fun finals footy facts about the Demons and the Dogs.
1954 revisited
Given the relative lack of success the two sides have had over the past six decades, it is somewhat surprising that the Demons and Dogs will be meeting in a Grand Final for a second time. Compare that to Melbourne and Carlton, who have won 12 and 16 premierships each respectively, and have been part of the V/AFL since its inception in 1897. (The Dogs are 'newbies', having joined the league in 1925.) Despite that success, the Demons and the Blues have not once met in a Grand Final. Neither, for that matter, have Melbourne and Geelong (winners of 10 premierships).
Such are the quirks of footy.
The parallels between the 2021 season and 1954 are strong, and include the following:
- Not only will the Demons be facing the Bulldogs in the Grand Final, they will do so having defeated Geelong in a Preliminary Final, just as they did in 1954.
- The Demons won their Round 8 match in 1954 by nine points (against Geelong) and their Round 8 match in 2021 by nine points (against Sydney)
- In Round 11 this year, the Dogs lost to Melbourne, who replaced them at the top of the ladder. In Round 11, 1954, the Dogs lost to Collingwood, who replaced them at the top of the ladder
- Melbourne lost its Queens Birthday matches in both 1954 and this year. The Dees lost to Essendon in 1954 and to Collingwood in 2021.
- In mid-June this year, the Bulldogs lost a thriller at Kardinia Park after the Cats kicked the final goal of the match. Exactly the same thing happen in 1954, at the same venue.
Off to a bad start
One aspect of 1954 that neither the Bulldogs nor the Demons have reprised this year is a slow start to the season. Neither side lost a match in the first six rounds this year, but in 1954 the two won only one of their first three games. This is one of only two years in which the two Grand Finalists had 1-2 starts to a season. The other was in 1992, when West Coast and Geelong both headed into their fourth matches with a 1-2 record.
What's in a name?
There's an old saying that droughts usually end with a flood, and if this year's Grand Final is any indication, that is definitely true. In the 122 V/AFL Grand Finals played, none of the teams has had a player with a first name of Bailey or Bayley. This year the Bai(y)ley drought will be broken by a deluge. Barring any unexpected team changes, there will THREE Baileys and a Bayley taking the field on Saturday week. The Bulldogs will have Baileys Dale, Smith and Williams, while the Dees' 23 will include Bayley Fritsch.
Another drought-breaker
It won't just be Baileys breaking the Grand Final drought this year. Christian Salem and Christian Petracca will ensure that Christian will be represented for the first time as a first name in a Grand Final.
The key name in a Dogs versus Demons Grand Final
It would seem that the key to having the Bulldogs and Melbourne play off in a premiership decider is Angus. Not the beef, but the name. In 1954, Angus Abbey was on the bench for Footscray when they defeated the Demons in the Grand Final. This year when the two sides face off for just a second time in the decider, Angus Brayshaw will run out for the Demonds against the Dogs.
These two will be the only Anguses to play in a Grand Final. If 1954 is anything to go by, Melbourne, which will be the team with an Angus in 2021, will take out this year's flag. Lending further weight to a Demons premiership omen will be Charlie Spargo. When the two sides met in the 1954 Grand Final, another Charlie S — Charlie Sutton — was on the winning side. It remains to be seen if Charlie Spargo — whose great-grandfather (Bob Spargo Snr), grandfather (Bob Spargo Jnr) and great uncle (Ricky) all played for the Dogs — will encourage his teammates to "shop early and avoid the rush", as Charlie Sutton did prior to the 1954 Grand Final.
What came beFOUR
Melbourne and the Bulldogs have met in a final four times before, twice in a semi-final, once in a preliminary final and once in a Grand Final. The Demons were the winners in the two semi-finals, by 18 points in 1946 and by 79 points in 1994. It was the Dogs who prevailed on the other two occasions, by 51 points in the '54 Grand Final and by 27 points in the 1961 Preliminary Final.
The omens
For Melbourne fans looking for premiership omens, the following facts may provide some comfort:
- In Round 4, the Demons defeated Geelong 85-60. The previous two teams to win a match 85-60 (Port Adelaide in 2004 and Richmond in 1969) went on to win that year's flag.
- Melbourne defeated Carlton 94-68 in Round 9. Their only other win with that scoreline came in 1926, a Melbourne premiership season.
- Adelaide could only muster a score of 2.9.21 in Round 17. This was a final score that had not been recorded in the V/AFL since 1964, the last premiership year for the Demons.
- Also in Round 17, the Western Bulldogs lost to Sydney 8.12 to 11.13. The Dogs' only other loss with that scoreline came in 1964.
- In Round 18, Essendon defeated North Melbourne by 18 points — just the second ever time they've defeated the Kangaroos by the at margin. The other time was in Melbourne's premiership year of 1926.
- Melbourne kicked off its finals campaign with a 13.15 to 9.6 win over Brisbane. The only other team to win a match 13.15 to 9.6 was Richmond in 2019. The Tigers won the flag that year.
On the other hand, Dogs fans can comfort themselves with these historical omens:
- Melbourne defeated West Coast 72-63 in Round 21. The only other time Melbourne won a game 72 v 63 (in 1958), they went on to lose the Grand Final that year.
- St Kilda won its last home-and-away match by 58 points, something the Saints had done in a final round once before. That was in in 2016, a premiership year for the Bulldogs.
- In the same round, Essendon defeated Collingwood 16.6.102 to 9.10.64. A final score of 16.6 v 9.10 was recorded just once before, in 2016.
- The Bulldogs' 1954 premiership win over Melbourne came on September 25. This year's Grand Final will also be played on September 25.
The omens above would appear to suggest that the bookmakers have got it right by installing Melbourne as favourites this year. But they'll no doubt all be forgotten when the Demons and Dogs take the field on Saturday week.
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